Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 21.901741 26.287614 31.107136 36.767724 43.204507 50.266729 58.570606
2025-08-17 15.499772 21.251008 28.211211 37.128140 48.113575 61.067190 77.348217
2025-08-24 11.686126 17.871827 25.957768 37.028075 51.492145 69.439850 93.052028
2025-08-31 8.768245 14.858636 23.403012 35.807738 52.851004 74.915181 105.039800
2025-09-07 7.214496 13.368391 22.537346 36.508644 56.494494 83.242986 120.820148
2025-09-14 5.688135 11.568508 20.884441 35.776454 57.926630 88.520981 132.659783
2025-09-21 4.837928 10.676462 20.426768 36.650309 61.563310 96.856636 148.859801
2025-09-28 3.698564 9.014624 18.467441 34.943727 61.177791 99.408492 157.063466
2025-10-05 3.251734 8.549533 18.421943 36.221667 65.305621 108.541209 174.805713
2025-10-12 2.819716 8.014194 18.162727 37.081977 68.782175 116.815826 191.573583
2025-10-19 2.432588 7.482553 17.824203 37.741794 71.929777 124.680199 207.973058
2025-10-26 2.129583 7.068652 17.643141 38.632963 75.463564 133.228543 225.626186
2025-11-02 1.702430 6.273103 16.660611 38.112004 76.838145 138.857034 239.694256
2025-11-09 1.414471 5.753960 16.174581 38.475917 79.763099 147.101357 258.149464
2025-11-16 1.146048 5.192480 15.494436 38.372538 81.829206 154.021716 274.772131
2025-11-23 0.865303 4.471736 14.311882 37.117490 81.716120 157.347381 285.851526
2025-11-30 0.732972 4.188412 14.113539 37.838341 85.206902 166.709240 306.716335
2025-12-07 0.564238 3.686020 13.268199 37.085310 85.880888 171.351006 320.154783
2025-12-14 0.483037 3.492328 13.191006 37.984027 89.716008 181.471633 342.716729
2025-12-21 0.341246 2.934817 11.995103 36.228768 88.282218 182.442397 350.339001
2025-12-28 0.300620 2.845587 12.126493 37.543207 92.957902 194.206890 376.076480
2026-01-04 0.256196 2.706576 12.081152 38.427928 96.807771 204.632149 399.847885
2026-01-11 0.214587 2.552569 11.957978 39.106383 100.263307 214.457629 422.856370